Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -150 HAW +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -6.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -4.9 (+3.1) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -4.0 (+4.0) | 134.9 (+9.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -5.4 (+2.6) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -5.0 (+3.0) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | HAW 71 – 64 UCI |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCI 87 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 11, 2026 | HAW 67 – 66 UCI |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCI 66 – 49 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCI 71 – 55 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#88) | 2.8 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#114) | 0.59 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#110) | 1.00 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#135) | 0.502 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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