Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -750 HAW +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -15.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -12.9 (+3.1) | 141.3 (-15.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -11.3 (+4.7) | 142.6 (-16.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -14.3 (+1.7) | 141.5 (-15.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -13.0 (+3.0) | 142.7 (-16.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | HAW 71 – 64 UCI |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCI 87 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 11, 2026 | HAW 67 – 66 UCI |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCI 66 – 49 HAW |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UCI 93 – 68 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-7 |
| Away | 14-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#56) | -1.0 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#32) | 0.10 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#46) | 0.04 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#22) | 0.482 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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