Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | UCI -385 HAW +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +25 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -12.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -10.9 (+14.1) | 136.9 (+24.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -10.4 (+14.6) | 134.4 (+26.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -11.0 (+14.0) | 133.9 (+27.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -11.5 (+13.5) | 134.5 (+26.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | HAW 71 – 64 UCI |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCI 87 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 11, 2026 | HAW 67 – 66 UCI |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCI 66 – 49 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCI 71 – 55 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-0 | 13-6 |
| Away | 8-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#71) | -1.0 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#70) | -0.26 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#73) | -0.29 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#52) | 0.467 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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