Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -135 HAW +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -1.4 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.0 (+11.0) | 137.0 (+26.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.5 (+8.5) | 136.8 (+26.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -1.1 (+12.1) | 133.2 (+29.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.8 (+11.8) | 134.8 (+28.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | HAW 71 – 64 UCI |
| Jan 11, 2026 | HAW 67 – 66 UCI |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCI 66 – 49 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCI 71 – 55 HAW |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UCI 93 – 68 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 16-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#126) | 7.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#118) | 0.78 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#116) | 0.93 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#104) | 0.519 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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