Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -1600 LMU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -13.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -13.3 (-14.3) | 158.9 (-23.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -14.6 (-15.6) | 155.2 (-20.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -13.0 (-14.0) | 157.4 (-22.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -13.3 (-14.3) | 157.5 (-22.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#11) | 4.8 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#6) | 0.98 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.38 (#5) | 1.24 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#3) | 0.557 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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