Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +750 GONZ -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +17 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -11.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -11.4 (-5.6) | 148.4 (+16.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -11.2 (-5.8) | 147.4 (+17.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -11.5 (-5.5) | 148.7 (+16.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -11.0 (-6.0) | 147.9 (+17.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | GONZ 108 – 65 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#165) | 14.7 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#231) | 1.90 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#225) | 2.60 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#246) | 0.576 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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