Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +1000 GONZ -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +28 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -16.4 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -11.1 (-16.9) | 148.4 (+15.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.4 (-15.6) | 146.6 (+17.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -11.5 (-16.5) | 146.9 (+17.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -11.2 (-16.8) | 148.2 (+15.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | GONZ 108 – 65 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#149) | 21.4 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#116) | 2.66 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#110) | 3.83 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#100) | 0.631 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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