Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -8000 LMU +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +35 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -25.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -21.4 (+13.6) | 149.0 (-20.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -18.3 (+16.7) | 147.3 (-18.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -22.1 (+12.9) | 147.4 (-18.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -19.7 (+15.3) | 151.1 (-22.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | GONZ 108 – 65 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 25.4 (#2) | 3.4 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#8) | 0.37 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.41 (#9) | 0.71 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#19) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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