Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -1400 LMU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +34 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -15.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -15.2 (+18.8) | 147.2 (+2.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.6 (+20.4) | 146.7 (+3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.3 (+19.7) | 148.0 (+2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -14.0 (+20.0) | 148.4 (+1.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | GONZ 108 – 65 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#23) | 1.1 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#51) | -0.37 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#41) | -0.40 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#59) | 0.461 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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