Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -20000 LMU +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -22.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -17.9 (+2.1) | 150.6 (-24.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -19.9 (+0.1) | 152.7 (-26.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -16.4 (+3.6) | 149.3 (-23.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -17.9 (+2.1) | 150.5 (-24.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | GONZ 108 – 65 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#8) | 1.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#48) | 0.92 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#44) | 1.10 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#41) | 0.546 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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