Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +320 GONZ -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +43 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -5.9 (-37.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -3.8 (-39.2) | 157.1 (+15.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -5.8 (-37.2) | 157.8 (+15.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -5.3 (-37.7) | 159.3 (+13.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -5.3 (-37.7) | 158.9 (+14.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | GONZ 82 – 47 LMU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | GONZ 73 – 53 LMU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 68 LMU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GONZ 91 – 74 LMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GONZ 92 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#98) | 14.6 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#89) | 2.87 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#94) | 3.62 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#84) | 0.644 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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