Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -150 UCR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -4.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.1 (-5.1) | 146.1 (-0.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.3 (-4.3) | 143.8 (+2.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -2.5 (-4.5) | 146.2 (-0.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.4 (-4.4) | 145.4 (+0.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | 0.9 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#165) | 0.81 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#155) | 0.34 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#155) | 0.520 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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