Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -225 UCD +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -7.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -6.1 (-4.1) | 138.6 (-20.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.5 (-3.5) | 138.4 (-20.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.2 (-3.2) | 138.7 (-20.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.8 (-3.8) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCD 83 – 63 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | -4.2 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#85) | 0.22 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#111) | -0.25 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#65) | 0.509 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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