Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -500 UCR +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -10.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -9.6 (-1.6) | 147.4 (-7.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -7.6 (+0.4) | 147.0 (-7.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -9.0 (-1.0) | 146.8 (-6.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -8.7 (-0.7) | 147.3 (-7.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCD 83 – 63 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#177) | -8.2 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#148) | -0.88 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#129) | -0.89 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#154) | 0.470 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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