Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +130 UCD -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -3.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.3 (-1.7) | 147.1 (+3.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -1.8 (-3.2) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -2.4 (-2.6) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.5 (-2.5) | 145.0 (+6.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCD 83 – 63 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-15 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#277) | -0.8 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#272) | 0.16 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#252) | 0.35 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#256) | 0.501 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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