Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -250 UCR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -6.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -4.7 (-10.7) | 141.2 (-13.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.0 (-10.0) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -4.6 (-10.6) | 137.9 (-9.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.5 (-10.5) | 139.3 (-11.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCD 83 – 63 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#169) | -3.6 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#174) | -0.54 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#182) | -0.60 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#198) | 0.469 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.