Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -125 UCR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -0.4 (+1.4) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.3 (+0.7) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.5 (+0.5) | 136.0 (+13.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.5 (+1.5) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCD 83 – 63 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#217) | 0.0 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#161) | 1.17 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#181) | 0.83 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.557 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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