Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -120 UCD +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +20 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -2.9 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.7 (-20.7) | 134.1 (+11.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -0.9 (-20.9) | 133.6 (+12.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.9 (-20.9) | 135.2 (+10.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.5 (-20.5) | 136.6 (+9.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#237) | -2.1 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#252) | -0.93 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#221) | -0.91 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#244) | 0.445 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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