Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +450 SMC -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +29 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -10.4 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.4 (-16.6) | 138.4 (-21.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.4 (-15.6) | 139.4 (-22.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.0 (-17.0) | 139.2 (-22.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.2 (-16.8) | 140.3 (-23.3) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#145) | 15.7 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#233) | 2.15 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | 2.93 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#208) | 0.610 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.