Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -6500 PEPP +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -25.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -21.8 (+6.2) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -23.6 (+4.4) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -25.0 (+3.0) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -25.1 (+2.9) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SMC 83 – 57 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-0 | 7-10 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#35) | -7.4 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#33) | -1.65 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#31) | -1.75 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#22) | 0.418 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.