Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +750 SMC -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +26 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -14.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -13.4 (-12.6) | 137.9 (+2.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -15.1 (-10.9) | 137.7 (+2.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -15.9 (-10.1) | 138.1 (+1.9) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -15.5 (-10.5) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-1 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#227) | 14.7 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#261) | 1.99 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#239) | 2.30 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#260) | 0.593 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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