Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -4000 PEPP +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -19.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.5 (-1.5) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -16.9 (-1.9) | 133.0 (+0.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -15.6 (-0.6) | 133.0 (+0.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -15.8 (-0.8) | 133.9 (-0.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SMC 83 – 57 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 9-1 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#28) | -3.6 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#23) | -0.87 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#16) | -1.04 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#12) | 0.452 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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