Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +750 SMC -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +24 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -10.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.7 (-12.3) | 137.6 (-13.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.7 (-10.3) | 136.6 (-12.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -14.8 (-9.2) | 137.9 (-13.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.7 (-11.3) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SMC 83 – 57 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 17-1 |
| Home | 7-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 61.8 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#185) | 13.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#256) | 2.10 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#234) | 2.95 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#250) | 0.589 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 15.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 42.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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