Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -3000 PEPP +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +30 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -13.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.7 (+18.3) | 141.6 (-29.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -15.0 (+15.0) | 138.3 (-26.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.0 (+17.0) | 141.5 (-29.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.9 (+18.1) | 142.9 (-30.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SMC 83 – 57 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 9-1 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#68) | -0.6 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#53) | -1.13 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#47) | -1.27 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#39) | 0.451 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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