Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +1400 SMC -3200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +27 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -14.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.6 (-15.4) | 135.3 (-18.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.0 (-14.0) | 137.3 (-20.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.7 (-15.3) | 135.4 (-18.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.2 (-15.8) | 136.6 (-19.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SMC 83 – 57 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 16-2 |
| Home | 7-10 | 17-0 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#254) | 13.3 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#268) | 3.02 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#252) | 4.40 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#310) | 0.680 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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