Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -400 USC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -9.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -7.5 (+7.5) | 152.9 (-5.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -8.7 (+6.3) | 151.5 (-4.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -8.0 (+7.0) | 151.9 (-4.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -7.6 (+7.4) | 151.6 (-4.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Mar 2, 2022 | ARIZ 91 – 71 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#12) | 8.7 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#20) | 1.68 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#29) | 1.96 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#15) | 0.582 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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