Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | USC +120 ARIZ -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -1.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -0.1 (-5.9) | 157.4 (+10.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -0.9 (-6.9) | 158.1 (+9.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -0.9 (-6.9) | 157.4 (+10.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -0.5 (-6.5) | 158.8 (+9.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
| Mar 2, 2022 | ARIZ 91 – 71 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 16.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#45) | 2.50 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#44) | 2.97 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#36) | 0.623 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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