Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +20 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -6.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -2.6 (-17.4) | 150.1 (+11.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -2.8 (-17.2) | 150.9 (+11.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -2.8 (-17.2) | 154.3 (+7.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -3.2 (-16.8) | 153.8 (+8.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 84.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#31) | 21.2 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#17) | 3.55 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#20) | 4.11 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#22) | 0.640 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 42.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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