Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -500 USC +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +21 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -15.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-42.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -12.0 (+9.0) | 158.1 (-39.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -12.2 (+8.8) | 158.9 (-39.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -12.3 (+8.7) | 157.2 (-38.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -12.3 (+8.7) | 158.1 (-39.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
| Mar 2, 2022 | ARIZ 91 – 71 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#2) | 7.4 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#14) | 0.84 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#7) | 1.15 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#5) | 0.531 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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