Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | USC +250 ARIZ -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -14.0 (+27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -10.0 (+23.0) | 160.9 (-17.9) | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -9.8 (+22.8) | 162.1 (-19.1) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -10.6 (+23.6) | 160.6 (-17.6) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -10.3 (+23.3) | 160.1 (-17.1) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
| Mar 2, 2022 | ARIZ 91 – 71 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#90) | 23.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#120) | 2.72 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#117) | 3.62 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.639 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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