Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -275 IU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -5.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.5 (-20.5) | 146.4 (-1.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.4 (-20.4) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.0 (-21.0) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.9 (-20.9) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Mar 11, 2022 | IU 65 – 63 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#17) | 12.1 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#27) | 1.71 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#33) | 2.31 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#48) | 0.558 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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