Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -470 IU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +20 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.0 (+8.0) | 158.1 (-36.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.9 (+8.1) | 153.9 (-31.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.8 (+8.2) | 154.1 (-32.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.1 (+7.9) | 152.6 (-30.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
| Mar 11, 2022 | IU 65 – 63 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 23.1 (#7) | 15.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#11) | 2.39 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.05 (#6) | 2.68 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#12) | 0.586 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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