Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -4.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.4 (-4.4) | 140.5 (-12.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.7 (-5.7) | 140.2 (-12.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.0 (-5.0) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.7 (-4.7) | 139.3 (-11.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#16) | 11.1 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#19) | 1.75 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#18) | 2.25 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#30) | 0.548 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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