Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -1600 IU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -16.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -13.8 (-5.8) | 154.3 (-22.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.3 (-5.3) | 156.3 (-24.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.7 (-4.7) | 153.5 (-21.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -13.7 (-5.7) | 154.1 (-22.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
| Mar 11, 2022 | IU 65 – 63 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#12) | 4.1 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#30) | 1.55 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#19) | 1.88 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#28) | 0.580 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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