Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | IU +210 ILL -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +25 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -8.4 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -7.1 (-17.9) | 156.9 (+6.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.5 (-18.5) | 157.3 (+5.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.0 (-19.0) | 151.4 (+11.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -7.2 (-17.8) | 155.4 (+7.6) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
| Mar 11, 2022 | IU 65 – 63 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#62) | 21.8 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#41) | 2.89 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#41) | 4.15 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#28) | 0.603 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 45.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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