Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | IU -250 ILL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | IU -4.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -4.2 (-1.2) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -3.6 (-0.6) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -3.5 (-0.5) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -3.8 (-0.8) | 141.4 (-2.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
| Mar 11, 2022 | IU 65 – 63 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#16) | 13.3 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#22) | 2.09 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#21) | 2.56 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#29) | 0.572 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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