Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK -188 DEN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +15 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -1.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -0.8 (-15.8) | 148.0 (-13.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -0.6 (-15.6) | 145.6 (-10.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -1.6 (-16.6) | 148.4 (-13.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -1.2 (-16.2) | 150.7 (-15.7) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#319) | -6.6 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#238) | -0.67 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#259) | -1.31 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#271) | 0.441 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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