Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | HOF -175 UNCW +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +24 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -4.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -3.0 (+21.0) | 136.9 (-20.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -2.5 (+21.5) | 135.3 (-19.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -2.9 (+21.1) | 137.0 (-21.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -3.0 (+21.0) | 137.8 (-21.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Feb 7, 2022 | HOF 73 – 71 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#131) | 1.7 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#104) | 1.45 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#103) | 1.78 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#69) | 0.547 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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