Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HOF -140 UNCW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -1.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -0.7 (+2.3) | 132.3 (-3.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -0.7 (+2.3) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -0.1 (+2.9) | 131.2 (-2.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.2 (+3.2) | 132.1 (-3.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
| Feb 7, 2022 | HOF 73 – 71 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#192) | 0.3 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#142) | 0.17 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#156) | 0.09 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#105) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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