Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -200 HOF +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -4.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.2 (-14.2) | 145.4 (-18.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.8 (-13.8) | 144.9 (-17.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.8 (-14.8) | 145.2 (-18.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.3 (-15.3) | 146.3 (-19.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
| Feb 7, 2022 | HOF 73 – 71 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#115) | 3.1 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#108) | 0.49 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#103) | 0.76 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#92) | 0.541 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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