Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -148 HOF +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -2.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.8 (+1.2) | 135.7 (+0.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.6 (+1.4) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.0 (+1.0) | 134.4 (+1.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.2 (+0.8) | 136.3 (-0.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
| Feb 7, 2022 | HOF 73 – 71 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 12-2 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 4.4 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#79) | 0.65 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#86) | 0.89 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#66) | 0.554 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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