Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HOF -300 UNCW +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -7.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -6.0 (-12.0) | 134.3 (+17.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -4.8 (-10.8) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -6.4 (-12.4) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -6.2 (-12.2) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
| Feb 7, 2022 | HOF 73 – 71 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#86) | -0.5 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#77) | 0.94 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#86) | 0.96 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#26) | 0.553 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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