Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -800 ME +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +21 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -8.2 (+12.8) | 142.0 (-31.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -11.7 (+9.3) | 138.2 (-27.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -7.8 (+13.2) | 142.9 (-31.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -7.1 (+13.9) | 143.6 (-32.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ME 76 – 70 UVM |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UVM 67 – 62 ME |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ME 57 – 42 UVM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVM 65 – 61 ME |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UVM 55 – 49 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#179) | -6.1 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | -1.72 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#191) | -1.96 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#126) | 0.427 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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