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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–21 on winners spread MAE 9.9 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Lafayette @ Lehigh	+1.5	131.1	56%	49–61	✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State	+4.3	136.4	68%	71–51	✗
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky	-1.1	131.5	44%	75–71	✓
Incarnate Word @ Lamar	+0.6	144.5	50%	70–64	✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian	+2.3	138.0	63%	68–84	✓
App State @ Old Dominion	+4.5	133.6	69%	72–58	✗
Robert Morris @ Green Bay	-7.3	137.8	21%	72–38	✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee	-1.5	156.6	44%	75–88	✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State	-0.1	144.1	50%	85–77	✓
Kennesaw State @ Florida Gulf Coast	+2.7	142.7	65%	65–63	✗
Grambling @ Mississippi Valley State	-10.5	131.1	15%	65–61	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State	-2.1	135.8	40%	55–56	✗
Tulane @ Tulsa	-7.6	158.7	24%	79–81	✗
Washington @ Utah	+6.4	138.8	74%	61–86	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston Christian	-10.8	157.9	16%	78–90	✗
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon	+1.5	142.5	55%	76–74	✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's	+12.1	135.5	86%	58–77	✓
BYU @ San Francisco	+1.4	146.3	57%	74–82	✓
Portland State @ Idaho State	+0.9	147.4	58%	72–65	✗
Idaho @ Northern Colorado	+2.5	151.1	64%	67–73	✓
Florida @ Mississippi State	+2.1	127.7	60%	61–59	✗
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama	+4.6	158.8	70%	66–82	✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTEP	-5.7	134.7	25%	67–59	✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech	+2.3	146.0	64%	76–89	✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State	+0.9	131.3	56%	48–50	✓
Montana State @ Montana	+0.0	135.5	49%	67–64	✗
Gonzaga @ Pacific	-11.8	160.9	15%	99–90	✓
USC @ Arizona State	+4.2	138.7	71%	77–69	✗
San Diego State @ Air Force	-5.5	139.7	29%	70–60	✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist	+3.1	131.9	65%	48–77	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara	+11.5	126.5	87%	58–76	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	-7.6	130.3	23%	66–69	✗
Oregon @ Stanford	-3.6	139.0	37%	64–71	✗
Butler @ UConn	+11.9	140.4	87%	56–86	✓
Michigan State @ Indiana	+5.2	138.9	71%	69–82	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	-7.8	136.6	21%	58–42	✓
Maryland @ Purdue	+10.9	132.7	84%	55–58	✓
Memphis @ Cincinnati	+2.4	148.9	64%	75–68	✗
NJIT @ Vermont	+9.3	136.1	84%	69–85	✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell	+3.8	156.8	69%	79–98	✓
Minnesota @ Michigan	+10.8	138.9	87%	56–60	✓
Merrimack @ St. Francis Brooklyn	-0.1	125.3	44%	63–55	✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner	+3.3	133.6	66%	58–68	✓
Binghamton @ Maine	+2.6	140.2	62%	57–78	✓
Fairfield @ Siena	+8.0	135.5	80%	62–52	✗
Niagara @ Saint Peter's	-0.7	122.6	46%	59–57	✓
Manhattan @ Rider	+9.2	138.8	82%	65–67	✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac	+12.4	139.2	87%	82–87	✓
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's	+2.8	127.7	63%	55–59	✓
Temple @ Houston	+17.8	134.5	90%	56–55	✗
Wichita State @ SMU	+0.2	135.5	50%	71–69	✗
Oregon State @ California	+1.2	132.7	57%	68–48	✗
Furman @ Wofford	-1.6	146.5	42%	96–82	✓
Washington State @ Colorado	+4.1	135.7	69%	55–58	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+3.8	149.1	69%	70–59	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.