Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1600 CSUB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -16.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -12.1 (+5.9) | 125.3 (+8.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -13.3 (+4.7) | 122.7 (+11.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -11.5 (+6.5) | 126.5 (+7.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -12.7 (+5.3) | 125.5 (+8.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCSB 75 – 69 CSUB |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCSB 109 – 84 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSB 81 – 75 CSUB |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 66 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#104) | -7.8 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#80) | -1.39 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#76) | -1.59 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#139) | 0.412 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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