In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
Big West Conference · Icardo Center · January 16, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -7.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money CSUB +250 / UCSB -310
Model Predictions
Spread Total CSUB win
Actual UCSB +6 144 Lost
Massey UCSB -4.3 (-1.7)
Massey Totals 154.1 (-10.1)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 36%
Baseline Plus ML UCSB -2.8 (-3.2) 146.8 (-2.8) 41%
Model 4 ML UCSB -3.0 (-3.0) 143.8 (+0.2) 49%
Model 3 ML UCSB -2.5 (-3.5) 146.5 (-2.5) 39%
Baseline ML UCSB -2.8 (-3.2) 146.1 (-2.1) 42%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2025 UCSB 10984 CSUB
Mar 13, 2025 UCSB 7166 CSUB
Feb 7, 2025 UCSB 8175 CSUB
Jan 10, 2025 UCSB 7866 CSUB
Feb 4, 2024 UCSB 7059 CSUB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CSUB UCSB
Overall 8-24 18-14
Conference 2-18 11-9
Home 6-11 11-4
Away 1-13 5-8
Neutral 1-0 2-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L15 L3
Avg Pts For 72.0 76.7
Avg Pts Against 83.4 73.7
Massey -9.5 (#308) -1.7 (#191)
Bradley-Terry -0.88 (#247) -0.28 (#199)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.62 (#271) -0.41 (#200)
RPI 0.423 (#310) 0.469 (#233)
Shooting & Four Factors CSUB UCSB
FG% 40.9% 46.5%
3PT% 30.2% 38.0%
REB / G 34.9 33.4
OREB / G 12.3 10.3
AST / TO 0.73 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.3% 54.6%
TOV% 20.0% 18.9%
ORB% 33.6% 31.6%
FT Rate 32.2% 30.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.4% 55.1%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 17.9%
DRB% 63.4% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 30.7% 35.0%

Game Analysis

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