Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB +250 UCSB -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -4.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.5 (-3.5) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.0 (-3.0) | 143.8 (+0.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -2.8 (-3.2) | 146.8 (-2.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.8 (-3.2) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCSB 109 – 84 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSB 81 – 75 CSUB |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UCSB 70 – 59 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L15 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#308) | -1.7 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#247) | -0.28 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#271) | -0.41 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#310) | 0.469 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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