I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
Big West Conference · The Thunderdome · December 7, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -12.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money UCSB -900 / CSUB +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCSB win
Actual UCSB +25 193 Won
Massey UCSB -13.2 (+11.8)
Massey Totals 155.9 (+37.1)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 93%
Baseline Plus ML UCSB -10.8 (+14.2) 147.1 (+45.9) 84%
Model 4 ML UCSB -11.5 (+13.5) 146.1 (+46.9) 86%
Model 3 ML UCSB -9.4 (+15.6) 147.2 (+45.8) 85%
Baseline ML UCSB -8.4 (+16.6) 148.9 (+44.1) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 16, 2026 UCSB 7569 CSUB
Mar 13, 2025 UCSB 7166 CSUB
Feb 7, 2025 UCSB 8175 CSUB
Jan 10, 2025 UCSB 7866 CSUB
Feb 4, 2024 UCSB 7059 CSUB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCSB CSUB
Overall 18-14 8-24
Conference 11-9 2-18
Home 11-4 6-11
Away 5-8 1-13
Neutral 2-2 1-0
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L3 L15
Avg Pts For 76.7 72.0
Avg Pts Against 73.7 83.4
Massey -1.1 (#180) -9.6 (#308)
Bradley-Terry 0.68 (#126) -0.54 (#222)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.65 (#141) -0.83 (#222)
RPI 0.529 (#130) 0.438 (#280)
Shooting & Four Factors UCSB CSUB
FG% 44.1% 41.2%
3PT% 36.5% 26.0%
REB / G 33.9 34.8
OREB / G 11.3 12.1
AST / TO 1.18 0.68
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 44.7%
TOV% 16.7% 21.7%
ORB% 33.3% 33.8%
FT Rate 36.2% 36.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 18.8%
DRB% 70.2% 61.4%
Opp FT Rate 33.7% 27.3%

Game Analysis

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