Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -900 CSUB +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +25 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -13.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+37.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -9.4 (+15.6) | 147.2 (+45.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -11.5 (+13.5) | 146.1 (+46.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -10.8 (+14.2) | 147.1 (+45.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -8.4 (+16.6) | 148.9 (+44.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCSB 75 – 69 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSB 81 – 75 CSUB |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UCSB 70 – 59 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#180) | -9.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#126) | -0.54 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#141) | -0.83 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#130) | 0.438 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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