Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +135 UCSB -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -3.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.1 (-3.9) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.8 (-4.2) | 137.2 (+18.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -2.0 (-4.0) | 140.9 (+15.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.6 (-3.4) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCSB 75 – 69 CSUB |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCSB 109 – 84 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UCSB 70 – 59 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#247) | 1.7 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#230) | 0.17 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#227) | -0.07 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#257) | 0.467 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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