Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +160 PV -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +1 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | PV -2.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -1.8 (+2.8) | 138.8 (-27.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -2.9 (+3.9) | 134.5 (-23.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.1 (+3.1) | 135.8 (-24.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.6 (+3.6) | 135.1 (-24.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ALST 95 – 80 PV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ALST 66 – 63 PV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALST 74 – 67 PV |
| Jan 22, 2022 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 2, 2021 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 2-18 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#345) | -5.6 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#313) | -1.20 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#310) | -1.45 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#325) | 0.434 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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