Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PV -2.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.1 (+4.1) | 152.0 (-15.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -2.2 (+0.8) | 149.9 (-12.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.4 (+2.6) | 153.3 (-16.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.5 (+2.5) | 152.7 (-15.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ALST 95 – 80 PV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ALST 66 – 63 PV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALST 74 – 67 PV |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ALST 56 – 55 PV |
| Mar 2, 2021 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-15 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#324) | -8.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#327) | -2.08 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.25 (#341) | -2.61 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#282) | 0.402 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.3% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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